Model Performance
50k simulations vs. actual game outcomes
Graded Props
60
57 hits · 3 misses
Hit Rate
95.0%
+42.6% vs break-even
Over Hit Rate
100.0%
45/45
Under Hit Rate
80.0%
12/15
Cumulative Hit Rate
How the 50k-simulation model settles as more props are graded.
Hit Rate by Prop Type
Strongest: Receiving Yards at 100.0%
55%+ 52.4–55% Below break-even
Calibration by Signal Strength
Higher-confidence categories should hit at a higher rate — the 50k simulation's confidence vs. reality.
Prop Type Breakdown
| Prop Type | Record | Hit Rate |
|---|---|---|
| Passing Yards | 18-2 | 90.0% |
| Rushing Yards | 14-1 | 93.3% |
| Receiving Yards | 20-0 | 100.0% |
| Receptions | 5-0 | 100.0% |
Backtest against archived closing lines · demonstration archive
